June 15, 2026: The navy’s MQ-25A aircraft refueling drone has entered production. These drones cost $209 million each and 76 will be produced. The MQ-25A won’t operate on aircraft carriers until 2029, three years later than earlier plans. The MQ-25A is the first step down the road to a totally drone carrier aircraft complement.

These plans have been underway for decades. Eight years ago the U.S. Navy enthusiastically accepted the concept of drones. There had long been some resistance to drones from the aviation community. But what won everyone over was the same thing that made drones so popular with the army and marines; persistence. With a few Predators, you can maintain 24/7 observation over a lot of territory. That's a persistent observation, and it is a big advantage in combat. The submarine and surface warfare communities in the navy were eager to get that. The marines were already seeing persistence in action when they served in Iraq and Afghanistan. The submariners liked the idea of long range, persistent, drones scouting way ahead for them. Then there is the prospect of one-way drones that could be launched from a torpedo tube. Suddenly, with drones, there are all manner of new possibilities. But it was the carrier community that finally saw the future. The persistent, much longer ranged, drones kept carriers safer, and enabled carrier aviation to strike targets much farther away.

Then the Navy rolled out its first combat drone. This was part of a six year long, $636 million contract to build and test two X-47B aircraft. The test program called for the first flight within a year and first carrier landing in three years. The 15 ton X-47B has a wingspan of 28 meters, whose outer portions fold up to save space on the carrier. It carries a two ton payload and is able to stay in the air for twelve hours.

Subsequently, the X-47A drone made its first flight. Development of this aircraft began in 2001. The Air Force was also testing the X-45 drone, which also had a naval version/the X-46. The X-45 program began in 1999, and the eight ton, with a two ton payload, aircraft was ready for operational tests in 2006. The X-46 has a different wing layout, and a range of 1,100 kilometers, carrying a payload of two tons. The X-47A also has a two ton payload and a range of 1,600 kilometers. Unlike the X-45, which is built to be stored for long periods, the X-47A was built for sustained use aboard a carrier. All of these aircraft were very stealthy and could operate completely on their own, including landing and takeoff under software control. The drones would be used for dangerous missions, like destroying enemy air defenses, and reconnaissance.

The American Department of Defense decided to make the next generation heavy bomber an unmanned aircraft. The Department of Defense also wants the new aircraft in service by the end of the next decade, some twenty years ahead of schedule. It was also decided that the X-45 project be split up, with the air force and navy allowed to develop combat drones to suit their particular needs. The X-45 was meant mainly for those really dangerous bombing missions, early on, when enemy air defenses had to be destroyed. But the military finally realized that the drone developers were coming up with an aircraft that could replace all current fighter-bombers. This was partly because of the success of the X45 in reaching its development goals, and the real-world success of the Predator in finding, and attacking, targets and Global Hawk in finding potential targets after flying halfway around the world by itself.

The X-45A passed tests with formation flying, and dropping a 129 kg SDB/Small Diameter Bomb. An X-45C could carry eight SDBs, or up to two tons of other guided bombs. The X-45A has already shown it can fly in formation. The planned X-45C would weigh in at about 19 tons, have a 2.2 ton payload and be 39 feet long (with a 49 foot wingspan.) The X-45A, built for development, only has a payload of 1.2 tons. The X-45C was designed to hit targets 2,300 kilometers away and be used for bombing and reconnaissance missions. Each X-45C was to cost about $30 million, depending on how extensive, and expensive, its electronic equipment is. Believing they could do better, the U.S. Air Force cancelled its X-45 program and went looking into different drone designs.

The one topic no one wants to touch at the moment is air-to-air. This appears to be the last job left for pilots of combat aircraft. The computer specialists believe they have this one solved, and are challenging the pilot generals t0 bring it on. The generals are not keen to test their manned aircraft against a drone, but this will change the minute another country, like China or Russia, demonstrates that they are seriously moving in that direction.

Meanwhile, many drone designers want to equip the drones with sensors to give the aircraft the same kind of situational awareness that piloted aircraft have. But for this to work, the drone would need software that would enable it to think like a fighter pilot. The techies say this can be done. But the fighter pilots that run the air force and naval aviation are not so sure. There are also some worries about job security and pilots being replaced by robotic aircraft. All this is headed for some mock combat exercise between manned and unmanned fighters. Such tests will be a competition between pilots and programmers. But the programmer community contains fighter pilots as well, and the smart money is on the software experts to outsmart, or at least outfly, the human pilots. No one thinks it will be a lopsided battle, but the robotic aircraft are so much cheaper over their useable lifetime, including pilot training expenses, that even a dead even finish favors the pilotless aircraft.

The American Navy has invested several billion dollars so far in developing combat drones that can operate from aircraft carriers, and replace some of the manned aircraft on carriers. There are other problems with the combat drones, and these concern just how they will be used. Currently, the thinking is that they will be sort of like cruise missiles that return, and will be most useful for reconnaissance and dangerous missions like taking out enemy air defenses. But many drone engineers, and some fighter pilots, believe that combat drones could revolutionize air warfare. Combat drones can perform maneuvers that a manned aircraft cannot because there are limits to the g-forces a human body can tolerate. In theory, software and sensors would make a combat drone much quicker to sort out a combat situation, and make the right move. For the moment, this aspect of drone development is officially off the table. But once combat drones start operating, and that will be eventually, there will be much pressure to let combat drones rule the skies, in addition to scouting and bombing.